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County-by-county primary results for 21st District GOP primary


Behold: County-by-county election night results from the GOP primary between Matt Doheny and Kellie Greene, posted below. (They're unofficial.)
Mr. Doheny won, 72 percent to 28 percent, and will face Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh, in November.
He received more than 65 percent in every county, but did better in some than in others. Some specific results bode well; others might be cause for concern.
He cleared 70 percent in Saratoga and Warren counties, two new ones in the district (this was supposedly the conservative bastion that would carry Ms. Greene to victory).
But he did the worst in Jefferson, Lewis and Washington counties.
Why Jefferson and Lewis? Jefferson is Mr. Doheny's home county, and Lewis is our neighbor just to the east. But it's also where Ms. Greene was most visible. She got 35 percent of the vote in Jefferson County.
In Washington County, Mr. Doheny didn't clear 70 percent. Ms. Greene also basically camped out her campaign in Washington County; she had the endorsement of a tea party there.
I get the sinking sensation that the election between Mr. Owens and Mr. Doheny is going to be fought in the eastern side of the district — it's a sinking sensation that neither campaign has disabused me of.
It's easy to see why. It's a jump ball there. It's all new territory in the district; Mr. Owens and Mr. Doheny have already campaigned their tails off in our part of the north country. Over in CapitalLand? Not so much.
So I might be putting a few miles on the ol' CRV.
Update: I think silly season is officially upon us.
Owens campaign manager James Hannaway sent out a news release today that touts a dip in the number of votes that Mr. Doheny got from 2010 to 2012, saying that it's a sign of declining enthusiasm among his base.
That's an incredible leap of logic that ignores several basic facts that actually do help explain why Mr. Doheny received 47 percent fewer votes in 2012 than he did in 2010. They all have to do with turnout. Because a greater proportion of GOP voters actually picked Mr. Doheny. But fewer voters total did. That's because the primary was scheduled in June, instead of the typical September; not a lot of people knew about the change; and state primaries also occurred on the same day in 2010, helping boost turnout. It's a pattern we saw statewide, not just for Mr. Doheny.
Also, one could very reasonably argue that Doug Hoffman was a much more formidable opponent who garnered much more media attention and name recognition than Ms. Greene.
That said, I think the "Does the base follow him" question is still one that remains to be seen. I just don't think you can look at low turnout to suss that out.
Here are the results, which don't include absentees:

Primary Results County by Cuonty

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