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Forecaster: Owens 'likely' to win

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With less than three weeks until voters go to the polls, the Cook Political Report says that Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh, will "likely" beat Republican Matt Doheny.

Dave Wasserman, the House handicapper, moved the race from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic" in a story today.

"According to both parties' insiders, GOP investment banker Matt Doheny's second run at Owens just isn't materializing," Mr. Wasserman writes.

The Daily Kos, a liberal blog, is the only major prognosticator left that still calls this race a toss-up. The rest are saying it's leaning toward Mr. Owens.

The Cook Political Report is the only one to have moved the needle all the way to likely Democratic.

In my opinion, there's still time left for Mr. Doheny to make up the gap, however wide it may be (and there's some disagreement on how wide it is). Mr. Doheny put $300,000 into his own campaign. More personal funds could come. And the super-PAC cavalry could charge soon at Mr. Owens. Outside groups like the Americans for Tax Reform and the National Republican Congressional Campaign apparently haven't given up on Mr. Doheny, putting in ad buys for him as recently as a week and a half ago. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also bought airtime earlier this week, showing that Democrats aren't high-stepping into the end zone quite yet.

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